My wife Nina and I were at the Olympic stadium last Thursday courtesy of Fon partners BT. The experience was very, very different from watching the Olympics on TV. While you are at the Olympic stadium there are many sports going on at the same time. Many times the crowd is confused or cheering for one event when another one is going on. Including Olympic medal ceremonies. On Thursday we saw Caster Semenya, the controversial female South African runner who was accused of being genetically a man and who went for a mysterious silver medal when it was obvious to most she could have gone for gold. I felt sorry for her but I can see why her rivals argue what they argue about her. We also saw Bolt running pass everyone else, including the other 2 Jamaicans who won the silver and bronze. It was one Jamaican celebration for a little country who deserves it. All this is in the slideshow. Visit legal Norwegian casinos like CasinoJan for a safe and secure platform where you can place your bets on various sports.

My history with Facebook goes back to 2006 when I joined the service, then 2007 when I first visited their HQ in Palo Alto and wrote that I was so impressed with the company that I thought it would be worth over $10bn.  That number that sounded so crazy then is but a fraction of its vaue today.  And then a year later I helped Mark Zuckerberg launch Facebook in Spanish. Here’s a video of the two of us. Needless to say that Mark Zuckerberg is an absolute genius when it gets to build THE social network.

Still I did not buy Facebook shares in the IPO.  I should clarify that I am a long term investor, not a trader but $38 seemed to high a valuation for me.  I was waiting for the shares to come down.

Before the earnings announcement I had bought some Facebook shares at $28 and a few hours ago I bought more shares at $23. And I have another order to buy more if they get to $20.

Here’s my rational.

Image representing Mark Zuckerberg as depicted...

Image via CrunchBase

Facebook is an amazing company, it has a good chunk of the richest segment of humanity glued to its service. The share of global income of people with Facebook accounts must be, in my view, at least half of all global income.  Not only do they have a billion users but they have the billion with the most money.  The top billion.

That Facebook is so great at engagement but so bad at monetization sounds to me as a more solvable problem than the exact opposite and that’s why I am buying the shares.

Right now Facebook seems to get $2 per user per quarter. I can’t believe they are not going to be able to get double that in the near future. If Google owned FB, how much would they get out of its user base? Google gets over $40bn in revenues from its user base now but its users and time on site are comparable to FB. So a good guess could be that FB could get 10X more revenues from their user base when they grow up.

Risks? that they never get good at monetization and/or that somebody else “myspaces” them.  That’s why I only recommend owning at most 3% of your net worth in Facebook shares. My main holdings are Apple, Google and Amazon and my portfolio exposure to Facebook is very small. But now I am a shareholder.

 

Sun Valley is the only conference that really trains both: your mind and your body. The schedule allows it. There is content in the morning and sports in the afternoon. It is interesting to see that many of the most successful people in the world are also the fittest. While over half of America is overweight or obese I would say that only 20% of Sun Valley attendees are (this is a personal guess).

In my case I confess that I train hard before attending Sun Valley. I am probably not the only one. To me Sun Valley is both a conference and a sports event. During the conference which ended yesterday I was mountain biking 2 to 3 hours a day and did so in the company of amazingly smart and fun cycling buddies.

Allen and Co has found a great formula that trains the mind and body.  To practice sports at conferences makes sense.  And it is not only to be fitter. When you meet people practicing tough sports you bond, and bonding is stronger than networking.

We are in Sagaponack, NY. Nina, Leo and Mia went to see the Southampton 4th of July parade. I am sick in bed with a bad summer flu.  I stayed in bed watching a Game of Thrones marathon. I am on Season 2 Episode 4. I almost never watch TV but I do enjoy TV series.  I watch them mostly during flights off my iPad. And now because I am sick and can’t stop coughing I watch them in bed.  By now, I have probably watched over 10 hours of Game of Thrones over the last 3 days. 

Game of Thrones has a great deal of sex and people talk about that, but sex is nothing compared to the amount of violence it depicts. A violence that it is at the limit of what I can stomach, as when they kill a baby off a woman’s arm. But the story is good and I am hooked. At this point anything that makes me forget my flu is welcome. Still, I suffer as I watch the most violent scenes. When I watch these horrors, I remember the child in myself saying, this is just a movie, this is just a movie.  But then, during a break I read the news. The real news.  And I see this.  A very Game of Thrones real life story going on right now in Syria as Bashar Al Assad tries to stay on his throne and goes on a killing rampage. Reuters reports.

Video clips showed rotting corpses lying in dried pools of blood in dark hallways, their faces covered with flies. One showed a woman and her child prone in a living room. The activist narrating the video said they had been stabbed.

A third video displayed pieces of charred flesh which activists said were severed genitals.

“There was more here yesterday,” said a man wearing plastic gloves.” “But the dogs were taking them.”

So now my defenses stopped working.  I think about what is going on in Syria, a country I visited in 2003 and found it quite attractive.  Here are my pictures of that trip. I can’t imagine how those who appear in them are doing now in this horrible civil war.  Why would Bashar al Assad, a man who trained to be an ophtalmologist in London and his wife Asma al-Assad who was born and raised in the UK and has a degree in computer science go on murder rampages to stay in power?

There is still a lot of Game of Thrones around us. The middle ages are still here.

 

There is a myth going around that Greece went bust because of the size of its welfare state. And the extension of this myth is that sound finances are incompatible with a sizable welfare state. That it is the welfare state itself that is making other countries such as Spain and Italy approach bankruptcy. But this is not true, many European countries have a bigger welfare state in relation to GDP. Greece did not go bust because of the size of its welfare state in relation to GDP but because of the size of its debt in relation to GDP. Countries can choose to be more or less socialist. What they cannot choose is to be socialist when they can’t afford it. Nordic countries are more socialist than Greece, but they provision for their generosity.

For Spain to avoid default in its national debt two unrelated events must happen: one is that EU guarantees Spanish national debt lowering country risk, and the second one, which is even harder,is that Spain regains competitiveness.

Regaining competitiveness is the biggest challenge for Spain. To achieve this the country must focus on liberalizing its growing companies. I propose that all start ups be given 3 years in which their employees do not pay social charges nor receive forced severance pay in order for government to recognize the risks that VCs and entrepreneurs take in investing in new companies. This would be applied in start ups of up to 10 people and only while they are not profitable so it would have a negligible effect in the social security system overall initially and hopefully a very positive effect when start ups begin contributing. For those unfamiliar with the system Spanish social charges plus all other taxes, these can take up to 45% of what a person who costs €3000 per month to a company takes home. But so far PP, the conservatives now in power, has done little for new and growing companies focusing instead on measures that make firing, not hiring, cheaper.

I am normally quite an optimistic entrepreneur but right now I am sorry to say, I am not. We can still avoid the perfect storm, but it looks harder every day. Still as we know markets do turn around, and if Spanish unemployment numbers turned around, so would financial markets.

Next June 22nd the fifth Menorca TechTalk starts. An event that my wife Nina and I organize every year in which we invite friends and entrepreneurs from around the world to our farm in Menorca. In previous editions we had founders of companies from Silicon Valley, New York, Spain, Germany, etc.

This year we will also have the privilege to listen to some of the most renowned tech entrepreneurs. As in previous editions, we invite anyone willing to join us to the TechTalk itself. A series of short improvised debates on technology and innovation that will take place on Saturday 23th from 4pm to 8pm. There is a 80 seat limit, so if you want to join us email us at menorcatechtalk@gmail.com

This is the video for the 2010 edition

This post could be a book and it is about a subject that I still need to address in Spanish. The substance of this post is easier to explain in English because the English/American culture is a culture in which the role of business in society is much better understood than in Spain. Indeed, the biggest obstacle I see with the Spanish crisis is that most Spaniards, voters and government included, don’t really understand how wealth is created. They don’t understand how capitalism works and, therefore, how it sometimes does not work. They don’t understand the concept that a rising tide lifts all boats (economic expansion) and a falling tide…lowers all boats (recession). So as Spain goes into record high unemployment of 25% and youth unemployment of 50% the emphasis is not in improving the workings of the Spanish economy but in blaming each other.

In Spain it is more common to complain about what others are doing poorly than focusing on the “what can I do to help” that is needed for all Spaniards to collaborate to restart the economy. Many Spaniards unfortunately suffer from a serious case of “blinding envy” of others and thus have a false understanding of the economy. Envy makes them see the economy as a pie of have and have nots. Instead of realizing that a shrinking GDP makes everyone worse off, they think that if they are doing worse is because somebody else “stole” what they used to have, that if they are doing worse then somebody else is doing better. They don’t get the concept that everyone is worse off! As a result, Spaniards are constantly looking for the few people who are doing better and crucifying them. But these are the entrepreneurs who could save Spain. Instead they are convinced that either foreigners or rich Spaniards ended up with what they used to have. Spaniards in general, have a lack understanding of entrepreneurship, of innovation, of job creation, of wealth creation of how hard it is nowadays to compete in a globalized economy. Interestingly they get it in football and Spain has some of the best football teams in the world, but they don’t in normal life. Their best entrepreneurs, people like the founders of Zara or Mango, some of Spain’s most successful multinationals, live in hiding for fear of what the average Spaniard may think of them. Amancio Ortega (Inditex) one of the wealthiest men in the world and his famous picture in which he looks as a convict, is an “only in Spain” story. Entrepreneurs are seen as people who get what is not due to them, not as wealth creators, but as thieves. For me as the founder of Viatel (partly in Spain), Jazztel, Ya.com and now Fon all in Spain, it is painful to read my own Twitter line and see how confused the average Spaniard is about the subject of entrepreneurship and job creation. I am tired of getting called “rico de mierda” people focus on what I have and not on what I do for the economy. Nor what all other entrepreneurs do. Having a daily twitter conversation with around 30K Spaniards has given me a great insight as to what people think on subjects such as compensation, social charges, labor flexibility and other crucial aspects of wealth creation.

And in this mix, the government does not help: the Socialists want to spend their way out of the crisis, the Conservatives want to cut their way out of the crisis. Nobody seems to understand that it is the type of spending that has to change, not the level. That less spending and more investment is needed. That Spain needs to invest on what works in Spain and less in what is dying in Spain. But the new economic plan seems tailored to old industry. The conservatives made it much easier to fire, but equally hard to hire.

As things stand Spain is in a much deeper crisis than any of the larger economies of Europe and as much as it is an economic crisis, it is a crisis of understanding. Without agreeing on the root of the problem: a lack of entrepreneurs, entrepreneurship, business imagination combined with a labor force that is to a great extent trained for an obsolete industry, construction, Spain will not turn around. But I don’t see anyone marching on the streets promoting new business creation. What I see is a lot of people trying to cling to a past in which Spain borrowed and build white elephants. A past that is gone forever.

I end my post with a link to the plan that I presented to Cristobal Montoro. I still consider it a great plan for 2013 but it was not taken seriously by the conservative government.

And here is another article in which I explain in more detail what is wrong with Spain that is different than what is wrong with the rest of Europe.

10 years ago all of us on the Internet were licking our wounds. We had been taken for a crazy ride in which we went from a point in whatever we touch was champagne to whatever we did was shit.

As an entrepreneur that lived through 1998 to 2002 I emerged reasonably well, I sold my shares in Viatel when it was worth $1.2bn, I sold Ya.com for $700 million but did not sell Jazztel when it was worth $5bn because I was its CEO and saw it go down to $700M (now it`s worth $1.4bn). Then I lost $50M in Einsteinet one of the best cloud computing start ups in Europe that was killed by the post bubble era in which financing completely dried out. So as you read this post you will see no bitterness.

But looking back at 2001/2002 I see this time, not as a period in which Internet companies destroyed the financial markets, but as a time in which the financial markets almost destroyed the Internet. It was financiers/analysts who drove those insane valuations up and then down. What should have been a smooth ride on the internet, an era of taking more and more global citizens in its midst, became a crazy ride in which the internet itself gained enormous prestige and was later, for a while, seen as a useless gimmick. Only around 2007 people again realized that the Internet was simply transforming the world economy and was here to stay.

And then came 2008, when the financial industry practically destroyed the world economy. That was when the same financial firms did to the world what they had done to the Internet, inflate it and let it fall like dead weight.

Having been a happy customer of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others I don’t want people to read this post as a rant against financial firms. We need financial firms. But what we don’t need is financial firms to do what they did first to the Internet and then to the overall economy, namely to hype them out of value and sink them hard for no reason. In simple terms what I am advocating has been done before and that is to separate trading from advising. The Chinese Walls in these firms never worked and never will.

Do read this post that I have in Google+. It’s about humanity and how peaceful it is now compared to other times in our history. Concretely it’s about the declining rate of casualties of war and armed conflict over time since WWII. The rate of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants has been falling drastically. Then rejoice. Then read the comments and see the widespread skepticism about this good news. People just can’t believe that we are now living in remarkably peaceful times compared to what we have gone through. That the probability of a random human being of dying in war is lower than ever.

Still I believe in this news. I am happy that my children do not go through what my grandparents went through living in the time of WWII. I guess that one of the characteristics that distinguishes entrepreneurs who do well, myself included, and the general population is that we are more prone to believe in good news. We love good news. We celebrate good news. Most people seem programmed to like and believe in bad news. I guess a headline that read “Most of humanity woke up today, had a normal day and went to sleep” would not get a lot of attention. But it makes me happy.

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