Natural resources have long been viewed as critical factors in a country’s economic development. However, the true engine of prosperity lies not only in having land, minerals, oil and other natural wealth but in having highly educated, hard working, and talented population. A few examples come to mind.

Israel vs. Saudi Arabia:

Knowledge-Based Israel, a country with scarce natural resources, has achieved remarkable economic success when compared with Saudi Arabia. By prioritizing human capital development, Israel has nurtured a thriving technology based economy. The nation has emerged as a global leader in innovation, particularly in defense, cybersecurity, biotechnology, and agriculture. Groundbreaking research and development endeavors have paved the way for high-value products and services. This emphasis on human resources has propelled Israel to surpass Saudi Arabia in terms of GDP per capita, despite the latter’s abundance of oil reserves. Latest figures showed Israel GDP per capita at $52k vs $20k of Saudi Arabia.

Netherlands vs. Argentina:

The Netherlands, renowned for its highly advanced agricultural sector, exemplifies the power of human resources in maximizing a nation’s potential. Despite the fact that you need 177 Netherlands to make one Argentina, and it having very limited arable land, the Netherlands ranks among the world’s top exporters of agricultural products beating Argentina on $100bn of agricultural exports vs $65bn. The country’s commitment to innovation, adoption of advanced farming techniques, and investment in research and development have fostered high agricultural productivity. Conversely, Argentina, with its vast land resources, faces challenges in infrastructure, technology adoption, and value chain development, constraining its ability to fully capitalize on its agricultural potential. Decades of corruption and poor government have left the Argentine countryside barren compared to the tiny agricultural land of Netherlands. Holland’s success underscores how skilled human resources can overcome physical constraints, driving economic prosperity.

Costa Rica vs. Venezuela:

Sustainable Development through Human Capital Costa Rica and Venezuela present divergent examples of human resources’ impact on economic development. Despite its smaller land area and limited natural resources, Costa Rica has positioned itself as a leader in sustainable development. By making substantial investments in education, healthcare, and environmental conservation, the country has nurtured a skilled workforce while attracting international investment. In contrast, Venezuela, blessed with abundant oil reserves, has experienced severe economic decline due to mismanagement and the neglect of human capital. Insufficient investment in education, healthcare, and other critical sectors has impeded Venezuela’s ability to effectively harness its natural resources. The result is that Costa Rica GDP per capita is $11k, slightly higher than that of Argentina and Venezuela who has the largest oil reserves in the world has a GDP per capita of $1350.

Japan vs. Brazil

Japan’s transformation from post-war devastation to an economic powerhouse exemplifies the transformative power of human resources. Despite minimal natural resources, Japan prioritized the development of a highly skilled workforce through investments in education and training. This cultivated human capital served as the driving force behind Japan’s industrialization and technological advancements. In contrast, Brazil, endowed with vast natural resources, has faced challenges in translating its resource wealth into sustainable economic development. Insufficient investments in education, infrastructure, and innovation have hindered Brazil’s ability to diversify its economy and fully leverage its human potential. Result is that Japan has a GDP per capita of $40k and Brazil of $8k.

While natural resources can contribute to economic growth and if you are a country like Norway that is lucky enough to have both natural and Human Resources you become the world champion on GDP per capita (over $80k). But if you have to choose Human Resources invariably beat natural resources. By investing in education, skills development, research and development, and fostering a culture of innovation, countries can nurture a highly productive workforce capable of driving economic growth, diversification, and sustainable development. Recognizing the power of human resources allows nations to thrive and overcome the constraints imposed by limited natural resources.

Several well known thinkers have expressed concerns about the dangers of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Elon Musk said that AI could become an “existential risk for human civilization,” while the late physicist Stephen Hawking warned that it could “spell the end of the human race.” I acknowledge these concerns but to some extent; AI can indeed pose a tremendous risk, much like nuclear weapons. However, it’s important to emphasize that, akin to nuclear weapons, AI cannot initiate an attack on its own. It must be programmed to do so.

AI, at its core, is a tool, a mirror. It possesses no personal agenda, no inherent morality, and no autonomous motivation to cause harm or good. It merely reflects the intentions of its creators and users. The real danger isn’t the mirror itself, but the reflection it casts – a reflection influenced by human actions.

Deepfakes, sophisticated cyber-attacks, manipulative social engineering, autonomous weapons, and perpetuation of biases are just a few examples of how AI can be misused when reflecting malevolent human intentions. Each of these scenarios underscores that the true threat isn’t AI developing its own harmful agency, but rather, those who may use AI as a tool for harm. AI can cause enormous harm, but not on its own.

It’s also equally important to remember that the reflection can be one of great good. AI can be used to create incredible benefits for society when utilized responsibly and ethically. Here are some examples:

Healthcare Advancements: AI can improve patient care, enhance early disease detection, and aid in the development of new treatments and medicines. Combine with pharmacogenomics AI can make medical care more personalized and efficient.

Climate Change Mitigation: AI can help us analyze and understand climate patterns, predict natural disasters, and optimize renewable energy sources. It’s a great tool in our fight against environmental damage.

Education Personalization: AI can tailor educational content to individual students, helping them learn more effectively and at their own pace. It’s transforming the educational landscape, making learning more accessible and personalized.

Poverty Alleviation: By aiding in resource allocation, predicting economic trends, and providing access to digital services, AI can contribute significantly to poverty reduction efforts.

Space Exploration: AI can analyze vast amounts of data from space, help navigate rovers on distant planets, and even aid in the search for extraterrestrial life. It’s an essential tool in our quest to explore the universe.

Like any tool, the benefits or harms of AI largely depend on the hands that wield it. AI itself isn’t the risk; it’s the potential for misuse by those with malevolent intent. Our focus should be on fostering responsible AI development and usage, guided by strong ethical principles and societal norms. AI can augment evil but use properly it can augment kindness. And that should be our objective.

When I was a child, back in 1972, the Club of Rome, a global think tank, released a report titled “The Limits to Growth”. In this report, it warned the world about the possible consequences of unchecked growth. These warnings were based on Malthusian theory, proposed by Thomas Malthus in the late 18th century. Malthus suggested that while populations grow exponentially, food production can only grow linearly, which would eventually lead to global starvation. The Club of Rome extended Malthus’s arguments to include resources like oil, gas, and minerals. Most scientists in the 70s believed that the Club of Rome was right in predicting our economic demise. My childhood and adolescense was marked by a sense of doom, that by the year 2000 global wars over resources were going to be common place and humanity was going to be impoverished and hungry. Few would have guessed that by 2000 we mostly had global peace (especially compared to WWI and WWII) and while population had doubled so had GDP per capita around the world.

As we moved into the 21st century, we realized that the predicted Malthusian catastrophe had been averted. Despite the global population increasing from 3.7 billion in 1970 to 7.8 billion by 2020, surprising and phenomenal advances in technology allowed us to overcome the forecasted food and resource shortages.

Key among these was the Green Revolution. It involved the creation of high-yielding varieties of cereal grains, expansion of irrigation infrastructure, and distribution of hybridized seeds, synthetic fertilizers, and pesticides to farmers. The introduction of disease-resistant wheat and rice dramatically increased per-acre yields. For instance, wheat yields in developing countries doubled between 1961 and 1982.

The energy sector also saw significant advancements. New oil and gas extraction techniques such as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” and horizontal drilling were developed in the late 20th century. These technologies enabled access to reserves that were previously uneconomical to extract, leading to an unexpected abundance of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel production grew way beyond the most optimistic predictions of the 70s.

In the face of the current global challenge, climate change, many are drawing parallels with the Malthusian predictions of the past. Scientists warn that if we continue to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, we risk causing catastrophic climate changes. However, I believe that just as technological advancements got us out of the Malthusian trap, they will also help us tackle climate change.

For instance, the cost of solar photovoltaic modules has fallen by nearly 99% since 1976, thanks to improved manufacturing processes and efficiencies. From 2010 to 2020, the cost of installing solar power dropped from $0.378 per kWh to $0.068 per kWh, making it competitive with traditional forms of energy.

Wind turbines have also significantly improved. Modern turbines are taller, have longer blades, and are more efficient than their predecessors. They can now generate power at a capacity factor of 45%, up from 30-35% in the early 2000s.

Battery technology has improved too, largely driven by the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). The cost of lithium-ion batteries fell by 89% from 2010 to 2020, from $1,160 per kWh to $137 per kWh, making electric cars more affordable.

Meanwhile, nuclear fission has made progress, with several countries investing in small modular reactors (SMRs), which are more flexible and cost-effective than traditional reactors. And while fusion power remains largely experimental as of 2021, the ITER project, a multinational collaboration aiming to demonstrate the feasibility of fusion power, is expected to begin plasma experiments by 2025.

Electrification of transportation is another promising development. By 2021, there were over 10 million electric cars on the world’s roads, up from virtually none in 2010. Companies like Tesla, Nissan, and BYD have been at the forefront of this transition, with models like the Tesla Model 3, Nissan Leaf, and BYD Qin becoming increasingly common.

While I think it made sense to think like the scientists of the Club of Rome thought back in the 70s that the world was going to destruction via starvation and resource depletion and that it makes sense that Al Gore, Greta Thunberg and millions of others think that we are on the same path regarding climate change, paradoxically, what scientists consistently get wrong is their own ability to engineer their way out of seemingly unsurmountable technical challenges.

I am confident that just like we can now house, feed, educate and take care of 8 billion people (if there still is over a billion people living in extreme poverty that is out of poor politics and not lack of resources), we will be able to deal with the temporary rise in temperatures as we stop burning fossil fuels. Wind, solar, nuclear and batteries are way on their way to give us the solution we need to avoid climate catastrophe.

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I have been actively following Covid since the start helping the government of Spain design a Covid fighting app and in the process dealing with many doctors, epidemiologists and experts. Still what is sad about Covid is that there every month we seem to have more unanswered questions. Here is a list of Covid mysteries that I put together, feel free to contribute.

1) Do children pass it on?

First it seemed they did not, now some studies says they do. Still to be determined.

2) Does it spread outdoors?

Again first it seemed it didn’t now some superspreader outdoor events are pointing that it is possible to have significant transmission outdoors.

3) Why are some people superspreaders?

Superspreaders play a key role but we really don’t understand what makes a person a superspreader other than they are.

4) Is a mask mandate enough?

Some countries like Sweden do not have mass mask wearing and do very well in the second wave. Are masks essential? They clearly seem to help but are they enough?

5) Are people who stop showing antibodies frequently susceptible to re
infection?

Many people who had Covid test negative on IgG and IgM a few months later. Does this mean they are susceptible to get re infected? Re infection cases are known but very rare.

6) Why did Sweden do better than Spain with its mask mandates and
severe lockdowns?

Is Covid unavoidable or are there clear policies that stop it short of shutting down the economy? Why do some countries do so much better than others? Not clear.

7) Is long Covid a lifelong challenge?

We have only had Covid for 9 months so how can we know how long Covid is. Will people still have Covid symptoms in 2030 of an illness they had a decade before?

8) Anosmia, why?

Theories abound that Covid infects the nervous system, the brain, but we really don’t seem to understand why anosmia is so common among Covid patients.

9) How did Sars CoV 2 originate?

Is it bat to another animal, to humans? Is it a lab? We don’t know.

10) Why does every Asian country, even chaotic ones like the
Philippines, do better than any European country?

This one baffles me. Philippines is so chaotic, so poorly managed as a country, so poor. Why do they do so much better than Belgium or Netherlands?

11) Is there herd immunity?

Many believe there isn’t and it is clear that some places like Madrid got hit hard in the first wave and the second wave. But other places didn’t.

12) And if there isn’t, how are vaccines supposed to work?

Vaccines are there to achieve herd immunity in a less complicated, less painful, less deadly way. If we don’t have herd immunity via infection how are we supposed to get it with a vaccine?

13) Why didn’t Western countries use the attenuated virus that China
used for the vaccines since it’s proven to work in flu, mumps,
rubella?

The Chinese approach to vaccine development seems so proven, why are Western companies trying to reinvent the wheel with the vaccines? Is it because they need new IP?

14) When and how do monoclonal antibody cocktails work?

What explains the unreal recovery of Trump? Is it the Regeneron mab cocktail? And if so will these type of therapies only work very early in the illness? The Lilly cocktail was shown not to work well in more advance patients. Will mabs be like the morning after pill?

15) Why are superspreaders asymptomatic and what percentage of them
are pre symptomatic?

This has been a debate since the beginning. Are people who spread the virus the most about to get sick themselves? If so what percentage is?

16) Why does Covid spread from those without symptoms?

Is the success of Sars Cov 2 based on a virus that has figured out that humans spread it through speaking and not coughing?

17) Are rapid antigen tests good enough to stop asymptomatic contagious people?

If the key to stopping the pandemic is to detect people when they spread it but don’t know it, do we need to rapid test everyone once a week?

18) Why do so many people keep testing positive on PCR?

Many people who recovered from Covid keep testing positive for weeks or months, are they contagious? And why do they test positive while other recovered patients don’t?

19) Until when after symptoms are people contagious?

How long should quarantines be? If we make them too long people are afraid to test themselves and more likely to hide their symptoms.

20) What percentage of people are afraid to get tested because they
don’t want to be quarantined?

How successful are we at finding Covid? are positivity rates enough? Is contact tracing enough?

21) Do politicians really have the impact we believe they have on this
illness or does it have a “mind” of its own?

Covid has unfortunately become so politicized. We live in a world in which the left seems to care about Covid and the right about jobs. But does the virus listen to politics? Probably not.

22) To what extent is weather a significant factor in the spread of Covid?

Warm weather and its outdoor life seems to limit the spread of Covid but then you have situations like Manaos, in the middle of the Amazon as one of the cities with the most incidence of Covid in the world.

23) Do children give Covid to adults in a significant way or is it
mostly the other way around?

How safe is it to open schools? Are kids active contributors to the pandemic?

24) Why are obese people so common among the hospitalized, in ICU and
among the dead?

That the average BMI of Covid patients is higher than that of the population where they come from is well known. But why?

Just heard that Trump has Covid. Some quick thoughts.

1. Did the President give Covid to Biden? Probably not because the debate was 3 days ago and he must be tested daily. But it is a possibility.

2. Will his positive diagnosis make his followers take Covid more seriously and be positive for the development of the pandemic in the USA? Probably but it depends on the severity of his symptoms, if he goes mildly asymptomatic he will double down with his Covid denial messaging and many more will die, but if he has symptoms more common of overweight men in their mid 70s, paradoxically, Trump’s Covid will save a lot of lives.

3. Will he get convalescent plasma or the Regeneron antibody cocktail treatment? Probably and it is also possible that this plasma or cocktail with anti Sars Cov 2 antibodies will slow the spread of Covid throughout his organs. Few people have been given antibodies so early on after infection. In this case he will tout that there is a cure for Covid.

4. What impact will Trump’s Covid have on the elections? One obvious consequence is that there will be no more in person debates which should help Biden as according to polls he won the only debate that took place. But also depending on the severity of his symptoms how will the election night look like? It is only 5 weeks away. What impact would we see in the voting if on November 3rd Trump is hospitalized or in ICU?

5. At Trump’s age and weight he has around 3% chance of dying, around 20% chance of being hospitalized, around 40% chance of having severe symptoms, around 40% chance of going asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. By October 10th we will know which way the illness is going for Trump. The first week tends not to be very significant in the prognosis of Covid.

6. Considering how reckless Trump has been the question now is who else in the administration will get Covid and what are the political consequences of this.

7. In terms of the effect of the diagnosis on the election the question is this. Is an ill Trump a positive or negative for his chances of winning the election? I believe that it is a positive for Trump. There will be either a pity vote factor if he does poorly or an admiration vote factor if he comes out well. Those who are hesitant, undecided are not the kind of people who will be happy that Trump is ill.

After a one week Menorca Berlin journey that took us on our boat from Menorca to Costa Brava and by car from Palamos to Berlin stopping in beautiful places in France and Germany we made it to Berlin. We came I would say as Covid refugees, the decision was triggered by Nina, my wife who has PCD and, because she is German, she wanted our kids to have a German schooling experience. I agreed to the move mainly because Madrid has 3000 Covid cases per day and Berlin has 70 with only 226 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Also and very important for my work, Berlin is an awesome and inspiring place for a tech entrepreneur to be at.

We departed Menorca crying and disturbed at having to leave our farm and an island that we love so much. We came by boat and car so the transition would not be so sudden, a week long therapy, we wanted to emulate the times when people took a long time to travel. But now that we are here the mood has gone from somber to excited.

If you live in the USA, Spain, France, UK you would not believe how non Covid Germany feels like. Being here you see the post pandemic world you pray for in other countries to arrive one day. Today, Saturday, restaurants, parks are full, everyone is socializing, and almost nobody wears masks outdoors, (only when you enter a shop or public transport do people wear one). Also nobody seems to care about surface transmission of Covid. At the park kids were lying everywhere, practically leaking the floor

What is most pleasant to us is seeing friends without worrying about coronavirus. People here see each other all the time, I already have many in person lunch appointments this week, yes in person. We had a great day with a close friend, his son and girlfriend going to restaurants and Berlin’s awesome playgrounds.

What is the secret to German Covid success? It is not that Germans keep their distance, at least that is not the case in crowded Berlin. Yes, they kiss and hug less than in Latin Europe, but to me that is not what is decisive in stopping the pandemic. What I see that stands in contrast with many other countries are two main lines of defence against Sars Cov 2. The first one is at the border: free and quick PCR for everyone who enters the country, results in 24 hours. The second one and is that when they find a positive they have an army of contact tracers ready to test everyone related and stop the spread. They don’t let the exponential growth that took place in so many other countries happen.

If Germany feels “post pandemic” is because many health care workers, ultimately led by a female scientist leader, Angela Merkel, are working hard to protect the population. But they work on the background and society seems free. This situation is the opposite of what is happening with the forced masks on the street policies of Spain, where awareness of Covid is massive, but contact tracing and testing is very poor. Plus visitors don’t get tested at the border.

I end with two pieces of information to illustrate how mild the pandemic is in Germany. one is that of all ICU beds in Germany, only 1% of the ones occupied are occupied by Covid patients, second and more illustrative of the mood, they polled Germans what they feared most, and twice as many Germans feared Trump handling of global affairs than they feared coronavirus.

Is it me or lately progressives are going from one obsession to another one leaving a path of neglected issues behind?

Just in the last few months:

First there was end of the world as we know it, an obsession with climate change as represented by Greta Thunberg. All the conversation centered around her every move, including the crossing of the Atlantic in a catamaran to avoid air travel. Then Covid came and we forgot about her, Greta was gone into the backdrop of social media, and we were all about the world coming to an end because of Covid. For two months it was Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid. Nothing else mattered. And then BANG, Blacks Lives Matter. BLM became more important than climate change, than Covid, it monopolized the conversation and that is what we hear about today on social media. Everybody is declaring a holiday.

Now, don’t get me wrong. All three issues need action, climate change, pandemics, and racism. But why can’t we deal with more of one of them at a time and more profoundly? Why go from social media obsession to social media obsession leaving a trail of substantive change neglect behind us? Because most likely, a month from now Black Lives will not matter much anymore. Something new will be all over social media. And in the meantime we have done nothing much about climate change, the pandemic keeps killing thousands, and endemic racism won’t go away either.

Should we stop and think for a while about how to really change what is wrong with the world for more than a few months?

While mainly I am an entrepreneur I am also been an active angel investor over the last 15 years and have had a chance to back a few unicorns. While others just invest, I do a combination of investing and mentoring. If you are interested in having me as an investor and especially if you are a second time entrepreneur and are doing a round please write to me at martin@preludefertility.com I invest in companies whose products I use, in founders that I get along with and at valuations that I find reasonable. I also co-invest with funds. The companies I invest in are mostly in the USA and Northern Europe, a few also in Spain and Latam. But wherever the companies are, their ambition needs to be global!