2007 23
How likely is it that what you are afraid of will kill you?
Published by MartinVarsavsky.net in General with No Comments
I believe that nothing that we know is for sure. Everything we know has a certain probability to be true or false. As a result I spend a reasonable amount of time researching probabilities of certain good and bad things that can happen to me and a steer my life accordingly. As a result my fears are many times different from those of many people I know. Here´s a good chart showing all the bad things that can happen to me (and you). It´s worth studying to somehow adjust your fears to what reality looks like. Are you afraid of getting cancer? That makes a lot of sense. Are you more afraid of flying than having a heart attack? That does not make much sense.
Now the one country that seems to have incredible statistics about how people die is the United States. I copied them below because it is interesting to see how different your own perception of risk may be from the actual numbers.
Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2003
| Type of Accident or Manner of Injury | Deaths | One Year Odds | Lifetime Odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedestrian, V01-V09 |
5,991 |
48,548 |
626 |
|||
| Pedalcyclist, V10-V19 |
762 |
381,693 |
4,919 |
|||
| Motorcycle rider, V20-V29 |
3,676 |
79,121 |
1,020 |
|||
| Occupant of three-wheeled motor vehicle, V30-V39 |
13 |
22,373,077 |
288,313 |
|||
| Car occupant, V40-V49 |
15,797 |
18,412 |
237 |
|||
| Occupant of pick-up truck or van, V50-V59 |
4,163 |
69,865 |
900 |
|||
| Occupant of heavy transport vehicle, V60-V69 |
442 |
658,032 |
8,480 |
|||
| Bus occupant, V70-V79 |
36 |
8,079,167 |
104,113 |
|||
| Animal rider or occupant of animal-drawn vehicle, V80 |
101 |
2,879,703 |
37,110 |
|||
| Occupant of railway train or railway vehicle, V81 |
24 |
12,118,750 |
156,169 |
|||
| Occupant of streetcar, V82 |
2 |
145,425,003 |
1,874,034 |
|||
| Other and unspecified land transport accidents, V83-V89 |
15,107 |
19,253 |
248 |
|||
| Occupant of special industrial vehicle, V83 |
12 |
24,237,500 |
312,339 |
|||
| Occupant of special agricultural vehicle, V84 |
175 |
1,662,000 |
21,418 |
|||
| Occupant of special construction vehicle, V85 |
20 |
14,542,500 |
187,403 |
|||
| Occupant of all-terrain or other off-road motor vehicle, V86 |
906 |
321,026 |
4,137 |
|||
| Other and unspecified person, V87-V89 |
13,994 |
20,784 |
268 |
|||
| Water transport accidents, V90-V94 |
573 |
507,592 |
6,541 |
|||
| Drowning, V90, V92 |
412 |
705,947 |
9,097 |
|||
| Other and unspecified injuries, V91, V93-V94 |
161 |
1,806,522 |
23,280 |
|||
| Air and space transport accidents, V95-V97 |
742 |
391,981 |
5,051 |
|||
| Other and unspecified transport accidents and sequelae, V98-V99, Y85 |
642 |
453,037 |
5,838 |
|||
| Other specified transport accidents, V98 |
2 |
145,425,003 |
1,874,034 |
|||
| Unspecified transport accident, V99 |
0 |
— |
— |
|||
| Falls, W00-W19 |
17,229 |
16,881 |
218 |
|||
| Fall on same level from slipping, tripping, and stumbling, W01 |
597 |
487,186 |
6,278 |
|||
| Other fall on same level, W00, W02-W03, W18 |
3,896 |
74,653 |
962 |
|||
| Fall involving bed, chair, other furniture, W06-W08 |
838 |
347,076 |
4,473 |
|||
| Fall on and from stairs and steps, W10 |
1,588 |
183,155 |
2,360 |
|||
| Fall on and from ladder or scaffolding, W11-W12 |
417 |
697,482 |
8,988 |
|||
| Fall from out of or through building or structure, W13 |
600 |
484,750 |
6,247 |
|||
| Other fall from one level to another, W09, W14-W17 |
701 |
414,907 |
5,347 |
|||
| Other and unspecified fall, W04-W05, W19 |
8,592 |
33,851 |
436 |
|||
| Exposure to inanimate mechanical forces, W20-W49 |
2,658 |
109,424 |
1,410 |
|||
| Struck by or striking against object, W20-W22 |
809 |
359,518 |
4,633 |
|||
| Caught between objects, W23 |
136 |
2,138,603 |
27,559 |
|||
| Contact with machinery, W24, W30-W31 |
640 |
454,453 |
5,856 |
|||
| Contact with sharp objects, W25-W29 |
99 |
2,937,879 |
37,859 |
|||
| Firearms discharge, W32-W34 |
730 |
398,425 |
5,134 |
|||
| Explosion and rupture of pressurized devices, W35-W38 |
30 |
9,695,000 |
124,936 |
|||
| Fireworks discharge, W39 |
11 |
26,440,910 |
340,733 |
|||
| Explosion of other materials, W40 |
147 |
1,978,571 |
25,497 |
|||
| Foreign body entering through skin or natural orifice, W44-W45 |
22 |
13,220,455 |
170,367 |
|||
| Other and unspecified inanimate mechanical forces, W41-W43, W49 |
34 |
8,554,412 |
110,237 |
|||
| Exposure to animate mechanical forces, W50-W64 |
171 |
1,700,877 |
21,919 |
|||
| Struck by or against another person, W50-W52 |
39 |
7,457,692 |
96,104 |
|||
| Bitten or struck by dog, W54 |
32 |
9,089,063 |
117,127 |
|||
| Bitten or struck by other mammals, W53, W55 |
78 |
3,728,846 |
48,052 |
|||
| Bitten or stung by nonvenomous insect and other arthropods, W57 |
12 |
24,237,500 |
312,339 |
|||
| Bitten or crushed by other reptiles, W59 |
0 |
— |
— |
|||
| Other and unspecified animate mechanical forces, W56, W58, W60, W64 |
10 |
29,085,001 |
374,807 |
|||
| Accidental drowning and submersion, W65-W74 |
3,306 |
87,976 |
1,134 |
|||
| Drowning and submersion while in or falling into bath-tub, W65-W66 |
332 |
876,054 |
11,289 |
|||
| Drowning and submersion while in or falling into swimming-pool, W67-W68 |
515 |
564,757 |
7,278 |
|||
| Drowning and submersion while in or falling into natural water, W69-W70 |
1,225 |
237,429 |
3,060 |
|||
| Other and unspecified drowning and submersion, W73-W74 |
1,234 |
235,697 |
3,037 |
|||
| Other accidental threats to breathing, W75-W84 |
5,579 |
52,133 |
672 |
|||
| Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed, W75 |
497 |
585,211 |
7,541 |
|||
| Other accidental hanging and strangulation, W76 |
277 |
1,050,000 |
13,531 |
|||
| Threat to breathing due to cave-in, falling earth and other substances, W77 |
46 |
6,322,826 |
81,480 |
|||
| Inhalation of gastric contents, W78 |
393 |
740,076 |
9,537 |
|||
| Inhalation and ingestion of food causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W79 |
875 |
332,400 |
4,284 |
|||
| Inhalation and ingestion of other objects causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W80 |
3,004 |
96,821 |
1,248 |
|||
| Confined to or trapped in a low-oxygen environment, W81 |
16 |
18,178,125 |
234,254 |
|||
| Other and unspecified threats to breathing, W83-W84 |
471 |
617,516 |
7,958 |
|||
| Exposure to electric current, radiation, temperature, and pressure, W85-W99 |
396 |
734,470 |
9,465 |
|||
| Electric transmission lines, W85 |
96 |
3,029,688 |
39,042 |
|||
| Other and unspecified electric current, W86-W87 |
280 |
1,038,750 |
13,386 |
|||
| Radiation, W88-W91 |
0 |
— |
— |
|||
| Excessive heat or cold of man-made origin, W92-W93 |
10 |
29,085,001 |
374,807 |
|||
| High and low air pressure and changes in air pressure, W94 |
10 |
29,085,001 |
374,807 |
|||
| Other and unspecified man-made environmental factors, W99 |
0 |
— |
— |
|||
| Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, X00-X09 |
3,369 |
86,331 |
1,113 |
|||
| Uncontrolled fire in building or structure, X00 |
2,761 |
105,342 |
1,358 |
|||
| Uncontrolled fire not in building or structure, X01 |
57 |
5,102,632 |
65,756 |
|||
| Controlled fire in building or structure, X02 |
35 |
8,310,000 |
107,088 |
|||
| Controlled fire not in building or structure, X03 |
39 |
7,457,692 |
96,104 |
|||
| Ignition of highly flammable material, X04 |
55 |
5,288,182 |
68,147 |
|||
| Ignition or melting of nightwear, X05 |
3 |
96,950,002 |
1,249,356 |
|||
| Ignition or melting of other clothing and apparel, X06 |
104 |
2,796,635 |
36,039 |
|||
| Other and unspecified smoke fire and flames, X08-X09 |
315 |
923,333 |
11,899 |
|||
| Contact with heat and hot substances, X10-X19 |
88 |
3,305,114 |
42,592 |
|||
| Contact with hot tap-water, X11 |
26 |
11,186,539 |
144,156 |
|||
| Other and unspecified heat and hot substances, X10, X12-X19 |
62 |
4,691,129 |
60,453 |
|||
| Contact with venomous animals and plants, X20-X29 |
94 |
3,094,149 |
39,873 |
|||
| Contact with venomous snakes and lizards, X20 |
2 |
145,425,003 |
1,874,034 |
|||
| Contact with venomous spiders, X21 |
8 |
36,356,251 |
468,508 |
|||
| Contact with hornets, wasps and bees, X23 |
66 |
4,406,818 |
56,789 |
|||
| Contact with other and unspecified venomous animal or plant, X22, X24-X29 |
18 |
16,158,334 |
208,226 |
|||
| Exposure to forces of nature, X30-X39 |
1,140 |
255,132 |
3,288 |
|||
| Exposure to excessive natural heat, X30 |
273 |
1,065,385 |
13,729 |
|||
| Exposure to excessive natural cold, X31 |
620 |
469,113 |
6,045 |
|||
| Lightning, X33 |
47 |
6,188,298 |
79,746 |
|||
| Earthquake and other earth movements, X34-X36 |
32 |
9,089,063 |
117,127 |
|||
| Cataclysmic storm, X37 |
75 |
3,878,000 |
49,974 |
|||
| Flood, X38 |
26 |
11,186,539 |
144,156 |
|||
| Exposure to other and unspecified forces of nature, X32, X39 |
67 |
4,341,045 |
55,941 |
|||
| Accidental poisoning by and exposure to noxious substances, X40-X49 |
19,457 |
14,948 |
193 |
|||
| Nonopioid analgesics, antipyretics, and antirheumatics, X40 |
210 |
1,385,000 |
17,848 |
|||
| Antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, antiparkinsonism, and psychotropic drugs n.e.c., X41 |
1,205 |
241,369 |
3,110 |
|||
| Narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens] n.e.c., X42 |
9,231 |
31,508 |
406 |
|||
| Other and unspecified drugs, medicaments, and biologicals, X43-X44 |
7,648 |
38,030 |
490 |
|||
| Alcohol, X45 |
373 |
779,759 |
10,048 |
|||
| Gases and vapours, X46-X47 |
690 |
421,522 |
5,432 |
|||
| Other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances, X48-X49 |
100 |
2,908,500 |
37,481 |
|||
| Overexertion, travel and privation, X50-X57 |
48 |
6,059,375 |
78,085 |
|||
| Accidental exposure to other and unspecified factors and sequelae, X58-X59, Y86 |
7,671 |
37,916 |
489 |
|||
| Intentional self-poisoning, X60-X69 |
5,462 |
53,250 |
686 |
|||
| Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, X70 |
6,635 |
43,836 |
565 |
|||
| Intentional self-harm by firearm, X72-X74 |
16,907 |
17,203 |
222 |
|||
| Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X71, X75-X84, Y87.0, *U03 |
2,480 |
117,278 |
1,511 |
|||
| Assault by firearm, X93-X95 |
11,920 |
24,400 |
314 |
|||
| Assault by sharp object, X99 |
2,049 |
141,947 |
1,829 |
|||
| Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X85-X92, X96-X98, Y00-Y09, Y87.1, *U01 |
3,763 |
77,292 |
996 |
|||
| Poisoning, Y10-Y19 |
3,700 |
78,608 |
1,013 |
|||
| Hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, Y20 |
108 |
2,693,056 |
34,704 |
|||
| Drowning and submersion, Y21 |
215 |
1,352,791 |
17,433 |
|||
| Firearm discharge, Y22-Y24 |
232 |
1,253,664 |
16,155 |
|||
| Exposure to smoke, fire, and flames, Y26 |
100 |
2,908,500 |
37,481 |
|||
| Falling, jumping, or pushed from a high place, Y30 |
77 |
3,777,273 |
48,676 |
|||
| Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y25, Y27-Y29, Y31-Y34,Y87.2, Y89.9 |
640 |
454,453 |
5,856 |
|||
| Legal intervention involving firearm discharge, Y35.0 |
347 |
838,184 |
10,801 |
|||
| Legal execution, Y35.5 |
60 |
4,847,500 |
62,468 |
|||
| Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y35.1-Y35.4, Y35.6-Y35.7, Y89.0 |
16 |
18,178,125 |
234,254 |
|||
Follow Martin Varsavsky on Twitter: twitter.com/martinvars
No Comments
snipfer on July 25, 2007 ·
This has quite some time, I think I first saw it on National Geographic.
Leave a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Mike Sax on July 24, 2007 ·
The problem with this table is that it doesn’t take into account how much time people spend engaging in this “risky behavior”. For example, while the table says that there’s only a 1/288,313 chance that you’ll be killed while occupying a three-wheeled motor vehicle, you’re much more likely to dye this way if you drive one every day. Also interesting: In the US you are more likely to be shot to death (“assault by firearm”) than to be run over as a pedestrian.