Nouriel Roubini is an academic at New York University, but he is also in the business of doom. Roubini was mostly unknown until he became a star in the States for predicting the current mess we are in. Now, as many others sink, he is world famous and making more money than ever. Not a day goes by without some friend of mine who runs a top bank or top hedge fund sending me another Roubini article about how everyone in Wall Street and in government is an idiot and he is so smart and proves us all wrong.
But while I believe that Nouriel Roubini has been proven right til now as stocks and the economy sink, I also think that when stocks turn around, and turn around they will, it won’t be Nouriel Roubini who will be the one who will let you know. All good things come to an end, but so do bad things. In my view, those who go long next week and stop looking at their portfolio for the next few months until the new administration is in place, will not be sorry they bought two years from now. That’s what I will do at least.
I had been out of stocks for 5 years. I started buying some this summer as I said in this blog. I now have 5% of my net worth in stocks. I will increase that. I dont know what the bottom will be. But if we are not there now we will soon be and as a non trader, but a person who rides long trends, I know I will never get it just right.
What would I buy? Big banks (yes big banks like C, BAC, JPM that are trading at near death), big tech companies like AAPL and Nokia, alternative energy companies like Iberdrola Renovables, big Chinese stocks, some stocks from my native Argentina like TEO (now so depressed). In short a collection of 30 global stocks which are now down 50% or more, but have a bright future after this recession.
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Nouriel on October 4, 2008 ·
Martin
There is a guy called Nouriel Roubini, with an N
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/
It is possible, that they are the same guy?
Mariano on October 4, 2008 ·
If I’m not mistaken his name is Nouriel.
Ouriel Ohayon on October 4, 2008 ·
what a pleasure to see someone else wearing the same name!
mj on October 6, 2008 ·
Kind of off topic, but for me yet more evidence of the legalised corruption of US politicians. Cause or effect ? I do not know, but in most countries corruption is illegal because the money donated is the cause of the problem. I doubt that US politicians have different DNA than the rest if society.
House members in favor of the bailout received 54% more money from banks and securities firms than members not in favor.
According to MAPLight.org, banks and securities firms gave an average of $231,877 in campaign contributions to each Representative in favor of the bailout in the past five years. The same banks and securities firms gave an average of $150,982 to each representative voting against the bailout.
Both House Republicans and House Democrats received an average of $212,877 each when voting “yes” for the bailout. Republicans voting no received an average of $181,688 each, but Democrats received an average of $101,993.
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homo viator on October 4, 2008 ·
I wish to believe that as well, but predict that we are far away from the floor. Lets not forget, the Dow was at 7.200 just six years ago.