I hope the censors at Youtube who freak out when they see some nudity leave this ad because whatever you may think of it, it is worth seeing.

September
2009
7

Verizon plus Fon plus Boingo would be a killer combination

Published by MartinVarsavsky.net in General with Comments Off on Verizon plus Fon plus Boingo would be a killer combination

Now that Verizon made a deal with Boingo, a deal with Fon in which Fon is installed in their ADSL and fiber connections would be great for Verizon as a company.

First of all, it would lower churn for Verizon as people who have Fon and find Fon when they travel (as it happens in the UK for example with BTFon) tend to continue paying for their broadband even when they mostly travel. Not being at home much is often cited as a reason to interrupt broadband service. Secondly, it would increase ARPU for Verizon because when ATT, Comcast and Time Warner cable users connect to the second SSID of the Verizon WiFi routers, they would make more revenues per ADSL/fiber line as carriers who team up with Fon do. Thirdly it would slow price erosion for their broadband offering as value perception increases in customers who can pay at home and connect everywhere. Other advantages are that the coverage of Fon’s mostly residential wifi network (coming out of residential boxes) would be complementary to Boingo´s commercial network, and Verizon would have an incredible WiFi offering to compete with ATT´s in mobile.

An increasing number of powerful, affordable mobile devices are entering the market and allowing users to run increasingly data intensive applications. 3G makes sense for light data applications such as email and web browsing, but it is not commercially viable for applications requiring large data transfers such as watching movies on smartphones when customers are on flat data plans. Mobile operators can reduce capex on 3G networks and overcome their speed and throughput limitations by offloading data traffic onto wifi networks. This is one of the advantages that E-Plus, the 18 million subscriber German mobile operator, saw in partnering with Fon. Also as an example,  AT&T has quickly seen the importance of wifi as part of a good user experience with smartphones, having sold the pioneering iPhone. In general carriers who sell the iPhone see the future of smartphones and it is a very, very data focused future.

This just appeared in the Huffington Post

Iraq, Afghanistan: lessons from the Pros

The Iraqi and Afghan military interventions have caused the death of over a million people, have cost trillions of dollars, have greatly weakened the US military, have increased the budget deficit, have hurt the dollar, have resulted in much greater terrorism in the Middle East (now expanding into Pakistan), have fortified Iran’s position as the strongest regional power determined on its quest for an atomic bomb. In short it´s been a disaster. As a result while calling to an end of the intervention was the home of “the weak” (i.e. the Dems according to the Republicans) now “the brave” as well are asking for withdrawals. As criticism of the US and European policies in the Middle East grows this article looks at how the failed policies in the region could be reshaped by learning from those who have managed to do suprisingly well for themselves in this troubled part of the world: the Israelis, the Iranians and the Afghan drug lords.

Lessons from Israel

First allied forces should emulate the strategy of Israel to deal with terrorism by ending occupation in South Lebanon and Gaza, by ending occupation in Afghanistan and Irak while keeping key bases in the region from which to retaliate should it be necessary. Israel tried and failed with occupation. It found it too costly, inhumane and inefficient. In the end it withdrew or separated with a wall from all occupied territories. Israel’s new strategy is to stay away from areas where terrorists are but to always stand ready to retaliate when attacked from them. As controversial as it is, retaliatory, short lived invasions as the ones of Lebanon and Gaza, rather than permanent occupation, work best at deterring Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has not solved the conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah but the death toll has dwindled to the lowest levels ever on both sides in 09. History has shown again that military interventions are much easier than occupations. Why insist?

Lessons from Iran

Secondly US/EU should learn from Iran and emulate their tactics but of course, in favor of peace. What Iran does best is to influence Middle Eastern nations by proxy. Iran provides key donations and training in areas that improve people’s lifestyles and wins their approval for their own objectives which unfortunately are not peaceful. Many Lebanese and most Palestinians now love the Iranians for the help they receive for schools, hospitals, job creation and a vision for the future. We should emulate the Iranians but finance an alternative Muslim lifestyle that is compatible with peace. We should also fund better schooling, housing, jobs and health but along the proposals of Jordan not Iran. Our opportunity here is to work with the very able King Abdullah II and Queen Rania of Jordan. If we only endowed a foundation led by the King and Queen with a fraction of what we are spending in the war efforts we could outspend and outsmart the Iranians at their own strategy and win good will for a future based on cooperation. The GDP of Iran is a third of that of Spain. We can do much better if we help our allies in the region help everyone else.

Lessons from the Drug Lords

Lastly and sadly, in Afghanistan we must learn from the Afghan drug lords who are the only ones who seem to thrive in this horrible conflict. Allied forces in Afghanistan must understand that the war in that country is mainly about drugs which make 1/3 of the country´s GDP. We should also accept the unfortunate truth that if it were not for Europe and USA drug consumerism, drug lords would have no income. It is our mental health problems that finance their drug traffic. We are mainly responsible for it. Drug lords finance their wars against us with our money. How? They buy drug crops at very low prices and collect market prices from our consumers of drugs in Europe and USA through their mafias. What is the solution? What we should do is buy all the drug crops from Afghan peasants directly from them outbidding drug lords and cutting them out of the value chain. After we have the crops we should simply destroy them. Interestingly peasants in drug producing nations such as Colombia or Afghanistan get a tiny fraction of the end value of drugs, drug lords make a living by collecting the spread between what they buy the crops at and what they sell them for as drugs in our markets. But we must get in that market and neutralize their income without hurting the peasants. Another similar solution that is costly but “very European” is to imitate the Common European Agricultural Policy of subsidies to Afghanistan. By paying a surplus for each Afghan sheep and cow we will make it more profitable for Afghans to raise cattle than growing drug crops. This would have the appeal of ending the drug crops altogether. But whatever we do we can’t fight the livelihood of most of the population if we want to stabilize the country. People must make a living and the drug lords provide one.

Follow Martin Varsavsky on Twitter: www.twitter.com/martinvars

I have been reading about the H1N1 flu since it was first reported in Mexico and most likely, so have you. I have been worrying about it since them and to some extent, so have you. But now I have it and you probably don´t and that´s why you may be interested in knowing what is like.

How is it to have “swine flu”? Well in my case it started as a cold but in a few hours it degenerated into a nasty flu with high fever and all sort of aches throughout the body, especially in the chest. When I called my doctor in Madrid and told him what was going on, he advised me not to come to the hospital as they are concerned about patients like me going into the hospital and making others sick. While I could understand the policy of keeping sick people at home, the “have somebody pick up the Tamiflu” proposition left me somewhat surprised. Especially since I wanted to get a confirmation that I did have H1N1. My offer to send him some saliva a la 23andme fashion was politely refused. Flu I learned, it´s a social disease. You do not have one person with flu and flu is always part of an epidemic. And right now, still in the summer, the little flu there is H1N1, especially considering that in the last week I have been flying through the world´s busiest airports. So no going to the hospital and no test. Testing was done on patients that were in bad enough shape to end up at the hospital (a policy that probably leads to tremendous under reporting of the disease). I was also confused about the other piece of advise “if things get out of hand do come and check in at the hospital”. Out of hand in what sense I asked? Not being able to breath was one example. Mmmm. Not being able to breathe, I wonder how I could make it to the hospital in that condition. But whatever I decided to follow my doctor´s advise and hope for the best.

After talking to the doctor yesterday my fever kept rising, all the way up to 38.5C in spite of the heavy dosis of Paracetamol I was taking. And I couldn´t stop coughing. During the early afternoon I started taking cold medication and Tamiflu. Now a day and a half later, the good news, is that I am doing considerably better. Fever is around 37.5C and all symptoms are back to what I would call a normal flu. I am in bad shape but no worse than you have been in the past when you had any flu.

Was it the Tamiflu that made it turn around so quickly or my own immune system? Frankly I don´t know but whatever it is it is nice to be able to say a few words without coughing, a novelty of the last few hours.

Interestingly nobody around me got the flu so far. Nor Leo, Tom, Isa, Nina who were all with me. Nor people who work with me. In any case I am now keeping considerable distance from the few people I see. Wash my hands frequently and where a special 3M mask when others are around.

Update at 10pm: now the symptoms have gone from being severe and nasty, to being those of a normal flu, to being those of a normal cold. I am doing much better than last night. If this is all there is to the “swine flu” I would summarize it as 12 very tough hours. Hopefully the rest will be a quick recovery.

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…is that in America you can´t sell health care reform by telling the truth. The truth would be something like this.

“We live in a country that has 50 million people without insurance. This is unfair and immoral. The right thing to do is for all of those who have insurance to get slightly worse medical care, so everyone can be insured. And that is what people do in other countries. And that is what we should do here.”

But solidarity does not sell well in a country where the 80% of people who have insurance don´t really care about the 20% who don´t. To use a public transport analysis what is going on here is that as 20% more passengers board the train some people may have to ride standing up. But the passengers in the train don´t want more passengers. They don´t care if the others have to walk. So then, aware of this Obama paints the plan in a too optimistic fashion, by telling the 80% who are insured that everything will be the same for them. And the vested interests in the status quo nail him because that´s just no the case.

In democracies it is very hard to pass measures that improve things for minorities because democracies are the rule of the majority and if the majority is better off, they just don´t care enough about the minority.

Ok, I am not an expert on this matter. And maybe reading my post is a waste of time as I am sure many other people have given more thought than I have to the issue of drunk driving. But governments around the world spend fortunes trying to find out if people are driving drunk by randomly stopping them and testing them. This leads to enormous amounts of lawsuits and all sorts of miseries. And while I think the intentions are excellent and drunk driving is the cause of an incredible amount of death maybe some of their efforts are misguided. What society should really want to know is not if a person is a dangerous driver. And the two are not exactly related. Take my case. I am a terrible drinker. I rarely drink. When I do is a glass of wine. The few times I have had 3 glasses of wine during dinner I got drunk, silly smiles, poor coordination and all. And wine is all I drink, no beer which I dislike, nor hard liquor that except when greatly diluted in fruit juice, I also dislike. Gin? Ron? Tequila? Vodka? Not for me. My body seems to have very little tolerance for alcohol. So what I am trying to say here is that while I could pass alcohol tests better than my friends as I drink much less, I know that my friends can drive much better than I can after drinking, say, 2 glasses of wine. I am very sensitive to alcohol. The point of drinking and driving is not to find out how much you drink but how well you can drive. If that is the case how about testing THAT. For example my neighborhood in Madrid is full of speed bumps. How about replacing those with serpentines that not only would slow you down but also be very hard to navigate when drunk? Or how about having cars make you do a simple coordination test in order to turn on? What we would like to know is not how much people drink but if their reflexes and ability to drive is still there. And this could be tested for all drivers in 30 seconds before they get going. In that sense the tests they used to do in the States when I live there made more sense. They did not test you for alcohol but made you walk tight rope style on the road dividing line. At least they were testing coordination and that relates more to driving than alcohol itself.

Image representing Skype as depicted in CrunchBase
Image via CrunchBase

I don´t know why, but I do have my best and worst ideas when I am riding on my mountain bike. A few times a week I get in my car and go to the Sierra de Madrid which is around 30m from my office and ride there. I rarely run into anybody, it is incredible vast and empty. If you look a the population density map of Spain you will see that Madrid is an island of people in a sea of nada. And I love riding in the “nada”. So I go there, frequently alone. I ride on my bike and I start….thinking. What else? And I have wild thoughts. It´s kind of dreaming awake. Many don´t make much sense but some do.

All this intro was meant to tell that I just came back from riding my bike and this is what I thought that may be worthwhile. I was wondering why would my friends and partners in Fon (Danny, Mike, Janus, Niklas) buy Skype again. I know they all became rich thanks to Skype but why risk being poorer thanks to Skype. So first thing I thought is what would I do to Skype to make enough money to justify its super high price. And my IDEA was, an alliance with Google. How would this work? Well, Google is great at convincing people to do new things that they did not know they wanted to do. And some of them are quite negative but they do them in the end because the reward is greater than the pain. By pain I mean advertising. So Google has convinced millions that Gmail is a great product, never mind that Google´s computers read your emails in search for words that may induce you to buy something that is related to your email. So if I write to Nina, why don´t we go to Ibiza this weekend, her email will come with ads of hotels in Ibiza, restaurants in Ibiza, flights to Ibiza. And tens of millions of people get these every day. And tens of millions of people don´t mind.

Now think of Skype. Why not do the same with voice technology and chat? People chat, you give them contextual ads. People say things, you listen to what they say and give them contextual ads. If they put up with this in Gmail why not in Skype? And all of a sudden Skype would be worth a lot more. So that´s the first idea.

The second idea concerns Tom Tom, a great company that in my view is now facing serious if not terminal threat from Smartphones. I go around the world, literally, even in Japan, using Google Maps in my Blackberry or iPhone (there is no clear winner, I carry both). I don´t go around the world carrying a Tom Tom navigator. Why? Other than the fact that many times when I check Google Maps I am walking and not in a car it´s all because of search. Now how could Tom Tom bring search to its devices? Using Smartphones. I like the big screen of the Tom Tom. I would like for the Tom Tom though to be integrated with Google Maps, not for display but for search. For display Tom Tom technology is still better. So I would like to be able to search in my Blackberry, send the result over Bluetooth to my Tom Tom and then have the Tom Tom guide me. It´s all about search and input. It´s at that level that Google Maps kills Tom Tom. Oh and I forgot about traffic info. I want that live in my Tom Tom as well.

I just upgraded to Snow Leopard and it is basically Leopard that runs faster. It is as if you had a BMW 320i and for $29 you get a BMW 325i. Now Microsoft is another story. Microsoft jolts you when they upgrade you. To me the change from XP to Vista was as if you had a Vokswagen Golf and Microsoft gave you a Chrysler Mini Van, regardless of whether you had a family or not, some people loved it, many did not and just wanted to go on driving their Golf. There´s nothing new to report in Snow Leopard, same great driving, just a little faster. As they say, if it ain´t broke, don´t fix it.

It is not that I did not know about userscripts, but other than one script that allowed me to reply to comments on this blog, I had never really taken advantage of userscripts. Yesterday morning we had breakfast with my friend Rodrigo Sepulveda at Cafe Hugo in Paris and he alerted me to the possibility of making web sites run in different manners thanks to users cripts. This is how Lifehacker defines the need for user scripts.


Sometimes web sites don’t work or look the way you want them to – but if you’re using the Firefox web browser with the Greasemonkey extension, you can do something about it.

So let me give you an example. I live in a country, Spain in which we pay a tax on digital memory (hard drives, DVDs and so on) but on the other hand, downloading is legal. So when in Spain, I frequently download movies from torrent sites using the Fonera 2.0n that is about to come out. But the problem of torrent sites is that they don´t come with reliable movie reviews. For movie reviews then, I, like most people, use IMDb. But it´s a slow process to alternate between torrent sites and IMDb. So after becoming aware of user scripts I tweeted if anyone knew of a script that allowed you to add IMDb stars to torrent sites. It turns out that that did not exist, but the opposite was available and is pretty useful. Thanks to some helpful and more advanced followers on Twitter I found this script here that adds torrent links to IMDb so you don´t really need to leave IMDb to choose torrents. With this script IMDb becomes both a movie review site and a sophisticated torrent search engine. And if you combine this functionality with the Firefox extension that the Fonera has that makes it automatic that when you hit a torrent link the Fonera downloads it into its attached hard drive, leaving your computer free to do whatever you want, then you have a great solution in your hands (if you are not in Spain there is plenty of legal content in torrent sites like Legal Torrents to try this solution out). And when it gets to be the time to watch the movies if you use the Fonera you don´t need to copy them on to your computer as well. You just connect to the Fonera by typing Fonera in your browser, select the movie from the Fonera´s hard drive that you want to watch and stream it to your browser over WiFi. But this is one example of a script that makes life easier for me. If you browse through Userscripts.org you will see that there are thousands of scripts, and many are for new browsers such as Google´s Chromium.

If I had anything to do with promoting user scripts I would say “because the internet not always has to be the way it is”.

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BT’s wifi network has reached half a million hotspots. Fon has made a major contribution toward its growth, since about 90% of the BT hotspots are BT Fon. The rate of growth is such that, together with BT, we are on the way to one million hotspots. This is the goal for February 2010.

With this initiative, BT responds to the exponentially growing demand for mobile connectivity. The sites include BT FON hotspots, BT Openzone, 12 wireless city centres and BT Openzone hotspots via the BT Business Hub. BT Openzone hotspots can be found in hotels, coffee shops and airports. Users of BT FON are part of the Fon wifi network which itself comprises more than 600,000 spots worldwide.

Mobile data traffic growth is now doubling every year. Handheld devices have been a strong driver for this growth, as an increasing number of affordable devices run data intensive applications. Although 3G is widely used, consumers seek more reliable coverage and faster speeds. Wifi networks are also valuable for mobile operators in that they help offload traffic from their 3G networks, amongst other advantages.

Dave Hughes, BT Retail’s director of Wireless Broadband predicts that “Pretty soon there will be a Wi-Fi hotspot on every corner in the UK”. Fon is well suited to help meet the growing demand for ubiquitous and affordable mobile connectivity. Fon spots are numerous and widespread and their locations complement those of commercial hotspot networks that focus on coffee shops, hotels and other businesses. Also, Fon’s uniquely scalable model, based on user-generated infrastructure, is capable of responding to this exponentially growing demand cost-effectively.

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