Skype Limited
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My investors at Fon include most of the people and companies that were involved in the recent sale of Skype. At Fon we have eBay, Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom personally as investors and board members, Mike Volpi personally as an investor and board member, Danny Rimer as a board member and Index Ventures as an investor, and Marc Andreessen as an investor. So for me to talk about Skype after the recent dispute for the control of this company could be dangerous. But there´s no need to be concerned. This post is not about my opinions on what just happened at Skype as those are irrelevant here. Personally I think that Janus, Niklas, Mike, Danny and Marc are all awesome guys, amazing investors and board members. So what I will speak about is how I see the future of Skype and the dangers it may face and the opportunities it may have.

Before getting started I would like to say that I have been a user of Skype from the very beginning, from way before I actually met and became partners with Janus and Niklas, that I think that Skype is a remarkable product that is way ahead of the competition and that while not yet a highly profitable company, Skype has certainly been a gift to humanity. Now having sent my thank you note, let’s talk business.

Most communication on Skype as we all know, is totally free, only occasional calls to non Skype parties are the ones that generate the $740 million revenue run rate that allows Skype to make a living. The rest is love. And those revenues are under threat from three rivals.

The first one is called Facebook. While my friends inside Facebook have not disclosed anything to me, I think it is obvious that Facebook will soon have its own Skype. And what´s amazing about Facebook is that even though its pictures apps is mediocre in comparison to Flickr, its email pales in comparison to Gmail and its chat is way worse than that of Skype (no file attachments, no this, no this no that), the growth of those apps in Facebook is explosive. While I have been in Skype since 2004, on a recent check I had around 30 people I knew on Skype and 144 on Facebook chat. When Facebook incorporates a Skype like product, how many people will go on using Skype? Facebook is getting so big that soon there will be no Facebook Out. The threat that was Skype’s threat, namely how do you make money if everyone is on Skype and there is no Skype Out, is now being transferred to Facebook. But the thing is that Facebook, another gift to humanity, has a different business model, advertising, and they could really hurt Skype.

The second threat to Skype is flat rate pricing from telcos around the world. Why would anyone use Skype Out if they have an all you can eat tariff on their phone? And all you can eat tariffs are more and more frequent. In Europe all ADSL plans come with flat rates to all fixed lines, and in USA flat plans to fixed and mobile plans are more and more common. There are also community plans like calling anyone on AT&T for free that turns AT&T mobile into a Skype. It is remarkable that these plans are available to visitors such as myself and my family. We are six and when we go to USA everyone gets a phone with an AT&T card and we all call each other for free on prepaid! And telcos have one big advantage and that is that you don’t need a computer to make a phone call 🙂

The third threat is Google Voice. Google voice is interesting because it came out of the Google Talk fiasco and it shows how relentless Google is when it gets its mind set on something (disclosure Google is also an investor in Fon). What Google Voice is doing with the free phone calls attacks the very livelihood of Skype and that is Skype out. And the integration with Gmail and Gmail contacts is amazing. Skype is weak at that, it has no email. Google first copied Skype with Gtalk and it took off but not really. Google Voice is the second derivative of the Skype attack, and is going well. The $50 million acquisition of Grand Central that resulted in Google Voice stands up there with the acquisition of Keyhole that resulted in Google Earth as two of the best M&A moves of Google so far.

So considering that Skype is under attack from Facebook, the largest telcos in the world and Google how can it be a good business to buy Skype?

Well the key here for the new investors in Skype is not whether Skype will rule the world but whether it will be worth more than what the investors paid for it. And after giving you the cons here are some arguments and strategies in favor of the acquisition.

Skype is simple. Michael Arrington and all of Silicon Valley may find Google Voice amazing but is the average global citizen ready to use it? Massively use it? You download Skype, you find your friends on Skype, you talk. And if you don’t find them you Skype out. And when you talk you can also do video. I LOVE video calls on Skype. I used to use them for people I really cared about, relatives, close friends. Now I even do business calls on video with Skype. It just gives you more of a sense of what is going through the other person´s mind. And Skype is the leader on video quality. So simplicity plus video may be a good way to beat flat plans from telcos and avoid being Tivoed. If the video services can migrate to mobile phones Skype is on to something.

Skype can include advertising. If Gmail reads your emails and places ads why can´t Skype do the same thing on their chat or even their voice channels? How far are we from systems that listen to what you say and just as you finish saying “let´s go to Ibiza for the weekend” they start showing you cheap flights to Ibiza. Gmail proved that if you give people a great service they don’t care if you spy on them. That could be an enormous revenue source. So far Google has been kind to Skype even including it in the Google pack. Maybe a Google deal for advertising is in the making.

Facebook is not the only community in the world, there is Linked In, Xing and other business networks. Those “business types” work best with Skype. I believe that as Facebook squeezes everybody in its quest to Microsoft the world (Mark Zuckerberg told me that Microsoft is his model) a few Apples will emerge. Skype could be one of them. Apple has a tiny fraction of the PC market, Dell dwarfs it in revenues. But Apple dominates the over $1000 PC segment. Skype could position itself as the communicator of choice for businesses. And that has tremendous value.

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JMPrado on November 7, 2009  · 

Well, skype can start publishing a real voIP client for Android and not just that crappy chat app… that would be a step in the right direction…

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leroy on November 7, 2009  · 

Very interesting analysis Martin but I think you may be optimistic of on of your Pros.
Skype can’t use an advertazing model as you describe because of his peer to peer nature. No robot can analyse the trafic because it does not go through a central place.

That being said I agree with you that buying Skype could make a lot af sense ad that their is a significant potential:

I know that the potential of Skype for Business is not activated despite recent effort from Skype to try to make it acceptable for corporation (I ask them years ago to launch a dedicated Business with a versio of Skype tailored for the corporate world but they did notconsider it as a priority).

Skype is not running well on many smartphones and Skype plus Wifi could have been a good option for international travellers. I did some test with the Nokia N800 in Asia and this was promising at the time.

Why not use the filetransfer features to integrate with a central platform of media on demand?

Is it worth 2 or 3 B$ ? I don’t think so because of the nature of his Peer to Peer technology Skype condamning Business models based on advertising. So no way to launch his own social network that could generate astronomic revenues.


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JacopoGio on November 7, 2009  · 

As usual, a very good “insider” post. Thanks!

A question: How Fon will be positioned when a Skyped world will arrive ?

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Martin Varsavsky on November 8, 2009  · 

We have worked closely with Skype in the past and hope to continue to work with them in the future.

Johannes Reck on November 8, 2009  · 

I think there is another big pro for buying back Skype:

Ebay has so far completely wasted Skype’s potential in the mobile space and I am very sure this will change very soon. If the new Skype management strikes intelligent deals on revenue share models with some major mobile operators, it could quickly do the same to the mobile market than what it did to the fixed line market. Particularly if you think about video, chat or sending data packages, this could be a huge thing. If you take a look at the popularity of the Skype iPhone App, it becomes clear that demand for such services is very high. In my eyes, it is just a question of time until a larger mobile operator will need to embrace the enemy. At this point the investment at the current Skype valuation will be seen as a pretty good deal!

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Michal on November 9, 2009  · 

One remark – Keyhole acquisition started Google Earth, not Google Maps.
Google Maps just incorporated satellite imaginery from Keyhole.
Btw, the link to Keyhole info is broken.

Anyway, interesting post.

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riffic on November 10, 2009  · 

The thing that bothers me most about Skype is the walled-garden approach. Anyone familiar with Facebook knows they are moving their chat platform over to XMPP, which also powers Google Talk. XMPP has the advantage of interoperability, through federation. This means that Google Talk users can communicate with users on other networks through a very familiar model we all know and love, as this is how email works.

not to mention that Google Voice uses the Jingle extension to xmpp, which is a specification that can be freely implemented by third party clients to support voice/video.

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riffic on November 11, 2009  · 

Google Talk uses Jingle, rather, not Google Voice.

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antoin O Lachtnain on November 16, 2009  · 

I think Skype has to look further than this. Voice calls on fixed and wifi networks are fast becoming a commodity with hardly any margin. The skype model only works as long as Internet telephony is not ubiquitous. But it will be ubiquitous within three years, and then Skype’s (and Vonage’s and all the rest) revenue model will be dead.

I think everyone is still massively underestimating the potential of Skype as a platform. Skype is an extraordinary piece of software, in all sorts of ways. There is really no application like it. There would appear to be many ways this platform could be profitably exploited. For instance, I think the particular opportunity for Skype as part of ebay would have been as a highly secure payment platform. Secure P2P networks for legitimately sharing multimedia content is another possibility.



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Eplixo on November 22, 2009  · 

Mobile portal voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) offered by third-party application-based providers pose a huge and direct challenge to the $692.6 billion global mobile voice market

Mobile carriers face the real prospect of losing a major slice of their voice traffic and revenue to new non-infrastructure players that use VoIP

“Ten years from now, more than half of mobile voice traffic will be carried end-to-end using VoIP” (Gartner Research)

The mention of Video VoIP on Smart Phones already is here, well about to launch in Qtr 1 2010. This is 100% mobile/cell phone based and requires no terminating charges other than SMS to start a video conference. No login, no website to navigate as all connections are from your contact list on your phone. What is more there is no limit to the number of users or the number of open conferences that are being used on the same phone due to the underlying technology.

However unlike Skype it is server based and not P2P as this was necessary to work the magic with the multi-user sound system. Also because it is server based there is the ability to transfer any kind of data such as files.

We are rolling it out through US and European Wi-Fi service partners and would welcome a discussion on how we could roll this out on FON.

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Jay M on November 25, 2009  · 

I personally believe skype would perish, until and unless they get acquired or bring in more innovation for existence.

More is the need for an hour as we dwell 🙂

oh btw, Great review Martin!

regards, J

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