Comments on: The mother of all recessions http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html Blog of an entrepreneur Mon, 13 Feb 2012 19:31:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mothers http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-176653 Mothers Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:12:51 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-176653 [...] The mother of all recessions [...] [...] The mother of all recessions [...]

]]> By: MARTIN VARSAVSKY | blog.pauloribeiro.net http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164535 MARTIN VARSAVSKY | blog.pauloribeiro.net Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:37:08 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164535 [...] In his blog: «I spent all day speaking to entrepreneurs at two conferences in Lisbon and Monaco at APCD and [...] [...] In his blog: «I spent all day speaking to entrepreneurs at two conferences in Lisbon and Monaco at APCD and [...]

]]> By: polac http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164515 polac Thu, 13 Nov 2008 22:08:14 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164515 Of course the markets are right Martin, you took the highest risk buying too soon and you did not use an adequate stop lose. Trend still bearish, and there is no bottom defined yet on charts. World is on the edge of depression. Of course the markets are right Martin, you took the highest risk buying too soon and you did not use an adequate stop lose. Trend still bearish, and there is no bottom defined yet on charts. World is on the edge of depression.

]]> By: Martin Varsavsky http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164489 Martin Varsavsky Thu, 13 Nov 2008 16:48:52 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164489 @<a href="http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164474" rel="nofollow"> fonero</a>: Fon is growing more than ever. Losing 80% less money than last October, approaching break even. We are in a field where demand seems to be inelastic. People think less about spending money to connect to the internet than about buying a computer or a car. My worries are that if the markets are right tens of millions will lose their jobs around the world. @ fonero:

Fon is growing more than ever. Losing 80% less money than last October, approaching break even. We are in a field where demand seems to be inelastic. People think less about spending money to connect to the internet than about buying a computer or a car. My worries are that if the markets are right tens of millions will lose their jobs around the world.

]]> By: fonero http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164474 fonero Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:39:13 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164474 i open a bottle of compasion, drinking together with you. Really sad to see that you now seem to own a few millions lesser.... really sad, so sad... You obviously compare your situation with your FON idea, - no Bills , no money for them, no Linus no money for you. i open a bottle of compasion, drinking together with you. Really sad to see that you now seem to own a few millions lesser…. really sad, so sad… You obviously compare your situation with your FON idea, – no Bills , no money for them, no Linus no money for you.

]]> By: Lasse Enersen http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164454 Lasse Enersen Thu, 13 Nov 2008 11:51:32 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164454 <blockquote cite>But what I hope the most is that this markets I wrong</blockquote> It's reasonable to believe that the markets will go down until the actual reasons for this bubble cease to affect the economy. Fed has got to stop the credit expansion.

But what I hope the most is that this markets I wrong

It’s reasonable to believe that the markets will go down until the actual reasons for this bubble cease to affect the economy. Fed has got to stop the credit expansion.

]]> By: Martin Varsavsky http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164450 Martin Varsavsky Thu, 13 Nov 2008 11:32:44 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164450 @<a href="http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164420" rel="nofollow"> Tom</a>: Anyone who disagrees is welcome to vote with his/her savings and buy shares. I was all cash and went to shares a month ago thinking it could not get any lower. I put 35% of my liquidity in the most profitable companies in the world, in Nokia, Apple, Google, Dell, and 10 others and I am down 21%. I don´t there to increase my exposure away from cash in this world. I don´t there to go on doing private equity investment in this world. But what I hope the most is that this markets I wrong. I look at them and I hope from the bottom of my heart that they are wrong. Because if they are right I see a recession that will leave an enormous amount of people on the street. @ Tom:

Anyone who disagrees is welcome to vote with his/her savings and buy shares. I was all cash and went to shares a month ago thinking it could not get any lower. I put 35% of my liquidity in the most profitable companies in the world, in Nokia, Apple, Google, Dell, and 10 others and I am down 21%. I don´t there to increase my exposure away from cash in this world. I don´t there to go on doing private equity investment in this world. But what I hope the most is that this markets I wrong. I look at them and I hope from the bottom of my heart that they are wrong. Because if they are right I see a recession that will leave an enormous amount of people on the street.

]]> By: Sameer http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164434 Sameer Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:49:55 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164434 Even though a lot of steps have been taken, there are too many factors intertwined to have a rapid impact. As Obama put it, it will take more than a year, maybe more than one term... Aside from this complexity, certain knee jerk actions don't help: The TARP program is barely off the ground and now Hank wants to stop it and focus on the consumer side. Focusing on direct impact to consumers is a good thing, but a knee jerk shift in focus doesn't provide the requisite comfort (look at what happened to the Dow after Hank's comments). Separately, Hank's comment that he does not want to push any bank to make loans they are not comfortable making, is scary. Providing taxpayer money to keep the banks afloat and letting them act with fear and pick and choose what they want to do, seems utterly irresponsible way to spend taxpayer money. What is supposed to make the banks willing to provide credit to appropriately credit-worthy consumers and businesses? Even with interest rate of zero, if there is no demand, there will be no growth. China's stimulus is a good attempt to fund the demand and invest in the country's infrastructure at the same time. Now THAT seems to be a good use of government funds in the present environment... Even though a lot of steps have been taken, there are too many factors intertwined to have a rapid impact. As Obama put it, it will take more than a year, maybe more than one term…

Aside from this complexity, certain knee jerk actions don’t help:

The TARP program is barely off the ground and now Hank wants to stop it and focus on the consumer side. Focusing on direct impact to consumers is a good thing, but a knee jerk shift in focus doesn’t provide the requisite comfort (look at what happened to the Dow after Hank’s comments).

Separately, Hank’s comment that he does not want to push any bank to make loans they are not comfortable making, is scary. Providing taxpayer money to keep the banks afloat and letting them act with fear and pick and choose what they want to do, seems utterly irresponsible way to spend taxpayer money. What is supposed to make the banks willing to provide credit to appropriately credit-worthy consumers and businesses?

Even with interest rate of zero, if there is no demand, there will be no growth. China’s stimulus is a good attempt to fund the demand and invest in the country’s infrastructure at the same time. Now THAT seems to be a good use of government funds in the present environment…

]]> By: Kevin http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164422 Kevin Thu, 13 Nov 2008 07:59:23 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164422 Equity investment will continue to be in the slump as long as fixed asset investment continues to pay good interest. Let's hope in a few months investors see investing in startups as better bet compare to public equity. First, we need to get people to stop talking about craze valuation, such as Loopt $500M. Are we going to see VC funds going back to 5-7 years 10x ROI? Equity investment will continue to be in the slump as long as fixed asset investment continues to pay good interest. Let’s hope in a few months investors see investing in startups as better bet compare to public equity. First, we need to get people to stop talking about craze valuation, such as Loopt $500M. Are we going to see VC funds going back to 5-7 years 10x ROI?

]]> By: Tom http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/the-mother-of-all-recessions.html#comment-164420 Tom Thu, 13 Nov 2008 07:48:38 +0000 http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/?p=1938#comment-164420 <cite>"And Obama, as much as I like him, is also bound by the law of gravity. "</cite> Obey Gravity. It's the law! <code> http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts/generic/65a4/ </code> In a side thought, frustration and negativity can come for many reasons. Hoping to make money with portfolios and losing money can be one of them. Not bringing a startup company cash-flow positive can be another. Is it the recession or your personal situation? You sound like you will take another year or two of holidays soon. @Julien: I agree to your approach. “And Obama, as much as I like him, is also bound by the law of gravity. “

Obey Gravity. It’s the law!

http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts/generic/65a4/

In a side thought, frustration and negativity can come for many reasons. Hoping to make money with portfolios and losing money can be one of them. Not bringing a startup company cash-flow positive can be another. Is it the recession or your personal situation? You sound like you will take another year or two of holidays soon.

@Julien: I agree to your approach.

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