I spent all day speaking to entrepreneurs at two conferences in Lisbon and Monaco at APCD and MMF. In both cases I tried to sound confident, to speak about the opportunities that crisis have for all of us. But as I return to my hotel room at 2 am and see how the US markets closed I am finally capitulating myself. And I am not saying this because my portfolio is down 21% when I thought I was buying at the bottom. My portfolio is down much less than Nokia for example or Dell, or Apple, or many other amazing companies stocks. I am saying this because the markets, and I so much hope they are wrong, are forecasting the mother of all recessions. For stock prices to be priced right now. For companies to be trading with P/E´s of 7 in a very low interest environment what the market is shouting is that the E in P/E will disappear.
And what´s worse is that everything that I hope was going to be done was done and it has not helped. The bailout did not help, the lowering of interest rates did not work, getting rid of the incompetent administration that got us into this mess did not work. And Obama, as much as I like him, is also bound by the law of gravity.
When recessions are market driven most people think that they are a problem of the wealthy who owns most shares. And it is true that so far the average wealth of the richest people has suffered proportionately much more than that of most people. But that is only true until millions lose their jobs. And the markets are saying that tens of millions will, around the world. Let´s all hope they are wrong.
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