hassan abdi

Interesting post! However, the NYT article seem to understate a point, even more true in Europe than in US (where cable providers are very strong): the fixed-line incumbents are re-acquiring a stronger and stronger position thanks to the broadband offer success, and will dominate the Wi-Fi – WiFi-GSM convergence market if they decide to do so.

Let’s consider, for instance, the situation here in Spain. Telefonica / Movistar can decide in any moment to launch a coordinate effort to offer WiFi-GSM handsets, so killing the attempts of competitors (other mobile operators and pure VoIP players). Telefonica still owns the last mile and is installing its routers in millions of households per year, Movistar controls the largest mobile customer base and has antennas (that is, possible WiFi / WiMax locations) everywhere.

The fact that they are not in a full-attack mode right now is due to the immaturity of the technology and because they have way more to loose than to gain. If and when attacked, they will react and no-one will be able to resist. Unless, and this is the only scenario where competitors can hope for, the unbundling process gets serious and a really competitive multi-providers environment is set for the DSL offer. Do you see this happening in Spain? I have many doubts.

Italy is in the same, if not worst, situation. France is probably a little better, but not so much (France Telecom and Orange together are unbeatable). The only big country where I see a more interesting scenario is UK. Over there British Telecom was already forced by the regulator to be serious with unbundling (more than half a million households already unbundled), and it’s not a mobile player. I have no knowledge of the German competitive scenario.

Bottom up: alternative providers have to run at full speed to develop the WiFi-GSM offer … hoping at the same time that the incumbents stay asleep a long time more before reacting.